The_CBAM_Cash_Profile_Blank.xlsx  (the book's own figures)

1 Inputs:
   B5   Q1 2026 goods imported, tonnes                    2000
   B6   Q2 2026 goods imported, tonnes                    2400
   B7   Q3 2026 goods imported, tonnes                    1800
   B8   Q4 2026 goods imported, tonnes                    1800
   B9   Specific embedded emissions, tCO2e per tonne      1.8
   B10  Q1 2026 certificate price, EUR                    75.36
   B11  Q2 2026 certificate price, EUR                    75.28
   B12  Q3 2026 certificate price, EUR                    75
   B13  Q4 2026 certificate price, EUR                    75
   B14  Forward price assumption, EUR                     75
   B17  Quarterly holding checkpoint                      0.5
   B18  Cost of capital, annual                           0.05
   B19  Months a buffer is carried                        8
   B20  Penalty as a multiple of the certificate price    1.3
   B23  CBAM factor 2026                                  0.025
   B24  CBAM factor 2027                                  0.05
   B25  CBAM factor 2028                                  0.1
   B26  CBAM factor 2029                                  0.225
   B27  CBAM factor 2030                                  0.485
   B28  CBAM factor 2031                                  0.61
   B29  CBAM factor 2032                                  0.735
   B30  CBAM factor 2033                                  0.86
   B31  CBAM factor 2034                                  1

Result: 14,400 tCO2e gross and 360 certificates for 2026, costing 27,062.64 (3.38 a tonne); 2030 at 65.48 a tonne,
40 times 2026 by 2034; 2027 cash of 54,062.64 against a lump sum of 27,062.64 (a factor of 2.00);
a 10 per cent buffer of 36 certificates carried for 90; break-even probability of a shortfall 2.56 per cent.
